Introduction to Infectious Disease Modelling and Its Applications

The course will have a hybrid format and students can choose to attend in person in London or online.

Infectious diseases remain a leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide, with HIV, tuberculosis and malaria estimated to cause 10% of all deaths each year. New pathogens continue to emerge, as demonstrated by the SARS epidemic in 2003, the swine flu pandemic in 2009, MERS CoV in 2013, Zika in 2016 and, recently SARS-CoV-2.

Mathematical models are being increasingly used to understand the transmission of infections and to evaluate the potential impact of control programmes in reducing morbidity and mortality. Applications include determining optimal control strategies against new or emergent infections, such as SARS-Cov-2, swine flu, Zika or Ebola, or against HIV, tuberculosis and malaria, and predicting the impact of vaccination strategies against common infections such as measles and rubella. Modelling was used extensively in the UK during the recent swine flu pandemic to monitor the extent of ongoing transmission and the potential impact of control such as school closures and vaccination.  It is currently being used in many countries to predict the impact of interventions against COVID-19.

This two week course, organised jointly between the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine and the UK Health Security Agency (formerly, Public Health England) is intended to introduce professionals working on infectious diseases in either developing or developed countries to this exciting and expanding area. The emphasis will be on developing a conceptual understanding of the basic methods and on their practical application, rather than the manipulation of mathematical equations. The methods will be illustrated by experience of setting up models in spreadsheets as well as other specialist modelling packages, small group work, and seminars in which the applications of modelling will be discussed.

By the end of the course participants will have deepened their current understanding of infectious disease epidemiology and have gained an understanding and practical experience of the basics of infectious disease modelling, which will be useful in their future work.

Who should apply?

The course is designed for individuals interested in expanding their knowledge of the techniques available for analysing and interpreting epidemiological data on infectious diseases and for predicting the impact of control programmes, including medical and health professionals, policy makers, veterinary scientists, medical statisticians and infectious disease researchers. Specialist mathematical training is not a prerequisite. However, individuals with degrees in mathematical disciplines working on some aspect of infectious disease dynamics and/ or control, who wish to learn about the potential of infectious disease modelling will also benefit. Some familiarity with spreadsheet packages (ideally Excel) is desirable.  Applicants should have a good command of English. Participants are expected to bring their own laptop (please contact the course organisers before the start of the course if this won’t be possible).

Course fees

• £2,880 full fee
• £1,440 for LMICs

When applying for discounted fees, please include proof of LMIC status alongside your CV. LMIC status can be confirmed with a passport and proof of current residence. 

If the course fee is to be paid on the applicant's behalf, please send a letter from the sponsor to confirm this as soon as possible. Otherwise, the applicant will be held personally responsible for payment.

Course Outline

The course makes use of Excel, and a specialist modelling package (Berkeley Madonna). The topics to be covered include:

• Key concepts in infectious disease epidemiology;
• The basic methods for setting up (deterministic and stochastic) infectious disease models;
• Practical applications of modelling, including predicting the impact of control strategies against infections, and describing the course of outbreaks;
• Analyses of serological data: methods for estimating age and time-dependent transmission rates and their application for developing models of the dynamics of infections;
• Modelling in real-time;
• How to read and interpret modelling papers;
• Models for describing STI transmission and control;
• Models of the dynamics and control of tuberculosis;
• Fitting models to data, network models, sensitivity analyses and introductory health economics.
• Guest lectures from researchers working on mathematical modelling.

The material from this popular and successful course is complemented by the published book “An Introduction to Infectious Disease Modelling” which was written by two of the course organizers (Emilia Vynnycky and Richard White).

A typical day consists of lectures, computer practicals and small group discussions. Seminars by invited external modellers, epidemiologists and decision-makers, which highlight the practical applications of modelling, are also scheduled throughout the course. For participants attending in-person, all teaching is carried out at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. Students following the course remotely will be able to join the live lectures at the scheduled times and will also be able to listen to the pre-recorded lectures on the same topic if they choose. Times are scheduled during the day during which remote students can work on given practicals in virtual rooms with other students with tutor-support.

A detailed course manual, a licence for the specialist, user-friendly modelling package and a copy of the book (written by the course organisers) will be given to participants. Participants will be required to use their own laptops onto which they will need to install Berkeley Madonna using the licence provided before the course and have a fully-functional version of Excel.

• Course description (2023)

Course Tutors

The course is taught by staff from the Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine and the Statistics, Modelling and Economics Department at the UK Health Security Agency (formerly, Public Health England), London. Staff have extensive experience of working closely with epidemiologists, policy and decision makers, in applying modelling to field data from developed and developing countries and using models to guide policy decision, and in teaching modelling techniques to professionals from medical and biological disciplines.

Methods of assessment

There is no formal assessment but, at the conclusion of the course, a Certificate of Attendance will be provided.

Comments from recent attendees

General

• 'Great course! It's hard to bring people from different levels of knowledge together, but this course succeeded in doing so.'
• 'It would help infectious diseases doctors to develop a higher level of comprehension of how epidemics spread.'
• 'Many MDs working in tropical areas badly need these concepts...'
• 'One of the few courses where I really feel I learnt something useful.'
• 'One of best courses I have taken'
• 'It was relevant, compact, intensive.'
• 'The course is an excellent introduction to the field. It covers all the basics and I know enough to go away and work on the aspects I'd like to develop further.'
• 'I think the subject is relevant to anyone in healthcare, not just decision makers. Gives different ways of looking at diseases.'
• 'It is an excellent starting point for disease modelling.'

Course content and structure

• 'Really helps reinforce basic epidemiology and how that is applied and taken further.'
• 'We have lectures covering basic concepts and following that there are practicals to further digest them, that is so like me!'
• 'Is a really good course, where you really get useful outputs! Beautiful course to get in touch with modelling.'
• 'Lots of practicals for each session, lots of examples based on diseases: wide spectrum for applications.'
• 'Very rich content, did very well to get so much into such a short time.'

Level of difficulty

• 'Very good for a totally 'blur' person like me on modelling - I saw the light.'
• 'Just right; could even have been more difficult (but it would take more time to explain the maths; so this might not be feasible).'
• 'Challenging but very well presented.'
• 'This course provided a great introduction to modelling for non-mathematicians, making this important discipline accessible.'
• 'Just the right amount of challenging content.'
• 'It gives a good introduction to mathematical modelling for people without strong mathematical background to understand.'

Organization and teaching

• 'Everything was very well organised.'
• 'Complete use of all our time - I certainly got 'my moneys' worth! Mix of fellow students was excellent, majority of lectures were to a really high standard, as you would hope from world famous LSHTM!'
• 'Excellent teachers, very good division of time between activities.'
• 'I learnt a lot more from this course (LSHTM) than another modelling course I attended. First the lecture notes are really good. Second each lecture was followed by a practical session and is really fantastic. This helps students to consolidate the ideas from lecture and put the theory into practice. On the whole FANTASTIC. Thank you!'

Applications for 2023 are now open and can be made via our online application form. 

The course will have a hybrid format and students can choose to attend in person in London or online. Offer holders will be required to confirm before the course start date whether they are planning to attend online or in person.

Please read LSHTM's Admissions policies prior to submitting your application.

Visas

The student is responsible for obtaining any visa or other permissions to attend the course, and is encouraged to start the application process as early as possible as obtaining a visa for the UK can sometimes take a long time. The Short Courses team can provide supporting documentation if requested.

Accommodation

A list of hotels located in the vicinity of LSHTM, along with further resources for short term accommodation, can be found on our accommodation pages. 

Important information

Please note:

• If you have been offered a place on the course you will not be able to register without bringing formal ID (Passport) and without having obtained the correct visa if required.
• It is essential that you read the current visa requirements for short course students.
• LSHTM may cancel courses two weeks before the first day of the course if numbers prove insufficient.  In those circumstances, course fees will be refunded.
• LSHTM cannot accept responsibility for accommodation, travel and other losses incurred as a result of the course being cancelled.